Job Reports Nudge Mortgage Rates

Jobs Report Nudges Mortgage Rates Back Into Their Cage

For the past two months, mortgage rates have been pacing inside a well-worn range—too high to celebrate, too stable to panic. And with markets still waiting for clarity on trade policies and inflation, it's been up to economic data to shake things loose.

This week brought the usual early-month data blitz, including:

• ISM Manufacturing and Services Indexes
• Job Openings
• ADP Employment
• And, the headliner: the Nonfarm Payrolls report (aka “the jobs report”)

Midweek: Hope Springs Eternal

On Wednesday, rates started to dip after two key signals suggested the economy might be losing steam. ADP Employment missed expectations by a mile—its weakest showing since January 2021. Not long after, ISM Services added to the gloom with softer-than-expected numbers.

The bond market responded like a student who just found out finals were postponed—relief. Yields dropped, and mortgage rates followed. For a moment, it looked like we might break out of the top end of the range.

Friday: Reality Checks In

Then came Friday’s jobs report. It didn’t blow the doors off, but it did beat expectations—just enough to undo the midweek rally. Bond yields surged, and mortgage rates bounced right back up.

So, while some headlines this week claimed rates fell, the truth is more nuanced: they dipped midweek… and then reversed course. Rates on a 30-year fixed loan briefly hit 6.87%, but by week’s end, we were bumping up against 7% again.

Translation: We’re still in limbo.

Survey data from Freddie Mac and the MBA painted a prettier picture, but only because they missed the Friday rebound. The real-time market tells a different story.

What’s Next?

More data, this time focused on inflation. But with tariffs, trade talks, and a Senate spending bill still hanging in the air, markets may take it all with a grain of salt. Until something breaks the stalemate, expect rates to keep circling in familiar territory.

Current Mortgage Rates (as of 6/6):

• 30-Yr Fixed: 6.97%
• 15-Yr Fixed: 6.22%
• FHA: 6.47%
• Jumbo: 7.02%
• 5/1 ARM: 6.40%

Bottom Line:

Rates flirted with improvement, but the jobs report brought them right back in line. We're still in the “wait and see” phase—watching inflation, trade developments, and fiscal policy. Patience (and a good loan strategy) remains key.

Need help reading between the lines—or locking before the next curveball? I’ve got you.

theLoanDesigner.com