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Rate Update (6/2/2023)

Over the holiday weekend, the news that markets were waiting for crossed the headlines: a deal to raise the debt ceiling had been reached. Even though this was a first step, it was a major one, and markets were set to rally into the shortened week. As of Thursday morning, the House had passed the bill, and it now moves to the Senate, where it is expected to pass this weekend. The bond market has enjoyed a healthy rally, erasing all the losses from last week.
Now that the debt ceiling talks are seemingly behind us, market participants turn their attention back to deciphering economic data. First is this Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report. Any sign of a weakening labor market could be the final data point the Fed needs for a rate hike pause. Past the NFP report, the most important event is the June FOMC meeting. While recent Fed Governors' comments have backed the idea of a pause this month, the door is not entirely shut on another 25bps. As always, the Fed says they remain "Data Dependent."
While we expect bond market volatility to continue, we don’t predict it will be with the same ferocity as before the deal was struck.

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